What does Anduril’s solid motor gambit mean for space?
Heavily capitalized defense startup Anduril Industries has made a mission out of disrupting various defense industry subsectors, namely AI, counter-drone technologies, and submersibles. On June 27, Anduril added propulsion to that list through the acquisition of Adranos, an eight-year-old startup with a proprietary rocket fuel it calls ALITEC.
Per Adranos, ALITEC can increase the travel distance of solid rocket motors by up to 40% and can be built faster and cheaper than competing systems. Anduril said the acquisition will enable it to focus on “missiles, hypersonics, and other propulsion systems” for DoD programs. That doesn’t intrinsically mean space, but U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R-Miss), who was quoted in the announcement, did highlight “small space launch systems” as a market that relies on solid rocket motors.
Anduril has raised $2.2 billion since forming in 2017, and is valued at $8.5 billion. Founder Palmer Luckey has described the defense industry as “more focused on process than progress,” and one where companies are “rarely asked to innovate as a matter of survival.” That philosophy smacks of the newspace ethos that drove entrepreneurs into the sector. So, even though Anduril’s main thrust is towards missiles and hypersonics, what impact will the Adranos acquisition have on the space market?
Incumbent motor builders. Aerojet Rocketdyne and Northrop Grumman are the only two solid rocket companies in the U.S. with meaningful scale. Anduril will undoubtedly compete for their business. But the domestic demand for space-grade solid rocket motors is very limited. The only rockets that use such motors are NASA’s SLS, which is projected to fly once every year or two, ULA’s Atlas 5, which is on its way to retirement, and ULA’s forthcoming Vulcan rocket, which is tightly coiled to Aerojet and Northrop. While we would not be surprised to see Anduril eventually pitch to be a supplier for Vulcan, an effort of that scale would require ULA’s blessing, years of development, and a nine-figure investment.
New launcher entrants. The leading launch startups in the U.S. – ABL Space Systems, Firefly, Relativity Space, and Rocket Lab – are all building vehicles that rely on liquid propulsion. The addition of strap-on boosters could serve to rapidly increase payload performance, but getting launch companies to change plans mid-stride is a tough sell. To win business with startups, or most vehicle developers for that matter, Anduril will likely need to get a foot in the door early in the design phase.
Other propulsion startups. The space industry already has a notable rocket propulsion startup in the form of Colorado-based Ursa Major Technologies, which is building liquid propulsion systems for defense and space applications. We view Anduril as complementary to Ursa Major, since the two companies make starkly different propulsion technologies. Anduril may compete with startup Firehawk Aerospace, which is developing hybrid propulsion technologies intended to replace solid propulsion. Raytheon, a frequent critic of Aerojet, is an investor in Firehawk. Should the two compete, though, it will more likely be over missile contracts, not space.
In short, Anduril faces a tough market in the launch sector, but its presence as a rising heavyweight is a net positive for the industry. More competition will increase innovation, which has skewed heavily toward liquid propulsion in recent years. We expect the company will be a more serious contender with hypersonics and missiles, with space benefiting from dual-use applications.
SOURCE: https://blog.anduril.com/anduril-industries-to-acquire-solid-rocket-motor-manufacturer-adranos-bb1f55989475