Quilty Space’s Top Five Themes of Satellite 2025
Every year the Satellite conference has a slightly different feel, as industry participants grapple with the latest developments. Quilty Space attended the conference and participated in two panel discussions as well as a host of meetings. Here are our top five themes from this year’s show.
1. The Multi-Orbit Quandary. The jury’s still out on multi-orbit, whether there’s real demand or if it’s a consolation prize conjured up by GEO operators trying to compete against Starlink. Technologically, multi-orbit works but has material weaknesses in user terminal quality and ground network orchestration. These areas need improvement to make the service compelling. Aero connectivity was the one bright spot where GEO-LEO is making a strong showing. In maritime, LEO-LEO looks to be an emerging trend.
2. The Rising Alt-Starlink Movement. Sovereignty concerns promulgated by Trump/Musk are putting wind into the sales of every possible SpaceX alternative as countries and companies want to lessen reliance on SpaceX and the U.S. Eutelsat OneWeb is perhaps the biggest beneficiary, as discussions swirl around replacing ~40,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine with OneWeb – a slower, more expensive, and potentially capacity-constrained alternative, but one that gives Europe some sovereignty over its wartime communications.
3. The Golden Dome. Industry is awaiting details on the next generation of missile defense, strategic deterrence, and how this will shake out amid the DOGE-ing. The Space Force is poised to play a key role, but more clarity is expected by the end of the month, when a White House-mandated strategic plan should drop with details on how to thwart ballistic, hypersonic and advanced cruise missile threats to the U.S.
4. SpaceX in the Second Trump Era. And what sort of regulatory wins it will enjoy in this next inCARRnation of the government (thinking BEAD — FCC Chairman Brendan Carr suggested LEO broadband should get a third of the $42.5 billion pot, but they could also scrap the whole infrastructure part of the program, send money back to the Treasury and just subsidize Starlink instead. Will a Musk-friendly FCC authorize 30,000 satellites (unlike the past two FCC administrations)?
5. Equivocations around Kuiper. Kuiper’s silence has led to industry uncertainty about how big of a player they will be. Understanding of their service offerings, strengths and weaknesses, and competitive strategy remains low. Many seem to have mistaken Kuiper’s silence for weakness, not remembering Starlink was also disconcertingly quiet for its first four to five years. Kuiper has little need for outside investment, making early news headlines far less significant than for other startups.
