Is that an Alarm or Just the Sound of a Familiar Tune? A closer look at SDA’s latest $1.5B Tranche 2 awards
Even more confusing than why the Space Development Agency’s (SDA) 72 Tranche 2 Transport Layer (T2TL) “Beta” satellites precede the 100 T2TL “Alphas” is:
- Why have the satellite costs increased 53%?
- Why has the expected three-vendor award been reduced to two?
Hey, York. We’re looking at you.
When SDA announced on Aug. 21 that the $1.5B in contracts would be awarded to Lockheed Martin ($816M) and Northrop Grumman ($733M), the absence of Tranche 0 and 1’s dark horse winner made us a little uncomfy.
I mean, we haven’t yet forgotten that back in June, the SDA tweeted about an “assembly issue” found on one of the 10 (two SpaceX; eight York) T0TL satellites launched on April 2. This seeded concerns about possible performance issues with York’s “Checkmate” satellites. In that same thread, the SDA said eight T0TL satellites remained in their “initial orbit” – something that even Harvard Astrophysicist Dr. Jonathan McDowell was questioning – because they needed to complete “initial tactical testing” before orbit raising. Now, four months later, the Checkmates remain in that same orbit, and the uncharacteristic silence of the SDA is getting a bit louder. Especially as York – fresh off its acquisition of Emergent Space Technologies – just cut ribbon on a new $20M, 60,000-SF manufacturing and testing facility designed to produce 1,000 satellites a year.
While the fate of the Checkmates and York’s role in future SDA programs like Alpha, Gamma, and T2DES is still TBD, we can’t help but wonder if its omission from Beta signals a bit of a stalemate for the Denver-based smallsat manufacturer’s positioning as a top PWSA bus supplier. Despite its compelling per-satellite price point that resulted in nearly $700M in wins with T0 ($94M), T1 ($382M), and T1DES ($200M), York is under a lot of pressure after AE Industrial Partners’ $1.125B majority stake investment in the company last year.
As for the rest of us who applauded SDA's efforts to end vendor lock by including nontraditional defense contractors and small businesses in its Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA)? Well, we're just hoping "checkmate" doesn't signal the end of that game.
SOURCE: https://sam.gov/opp/3e3eb41990ef4098b893b10cd6d297b6/view