GEO Satellite Orders for 2023: Indicative of New Trend?

Barring any late-stage contracts, 2023 will conclude with 12 commercial GEO satellite orders, seven of which were micro GEOs (>1,000 kg).  

This year continues the trend of GEO operators staying extremely conservative when buying satellites. Of the five classic large GEOs, four are replacements (Dish’s EchoStar-25, Yahsat’s Al Yah 4 and 5, and Thaicom’s unnamed satellite). The only new classic GEO satellite is for the Mongolian government, which is a new operator and appears mainly driven by sovereign connectivity goals, not market forces. 

In contrast, all seven micro GEOs ordered in 2023 are intended to grow or establish new markets. Inmarsat (now Viasat) ordered three micro GEO satellites from newcomer Swissto12 to add resiliency and flexibility to its L-band network. However, one of three will now be needed as a replacement following the August failure of Inmarsat-6 F2. Astranis won the other four micro GEOs, which it will build and operate for Mexican internet services provider Apco Networks and Orbits Corp in the Philippines. 

Nine years after Starlink and OneWeb emerged on the scene, a slowdown in classic GEO orders reflects several concerns, including: 

1. The technical/manufacturing readiness of next-generation software-defined (SD) GEO satellites. 

2. Continued weakness in television broadcast markets. 

3. A growing acceptance of micro (>1,000kg) and small (1,000 to 2,000kg) GEOs. 

4. The ongoing chilling effect of LEO & MEO competition.  

Can large GEOs make a comeback? The outlook is not good. The industry’s chief proponent of “big iron” broadband satellites, Viasat, canceled its ViaSat-4 program after a ~$200M, three-year development program. Meanwhile, the GEO industry’s shift to SD satellites isn’t going smoothly. Airbus’s 2- to 3-year delay on OneSat development appears to have discouraged additional SD satellite orders across the industry, regardless of manufacturer. The 2023 market saw only one SD GEO satellite order (Thaicom’s Airbus OneSat), compared to five last year (all Thales Alenia Space Inspire platforms).  

In October, the Space Force issued an RFI to explore commercially available micro-GEO platforms. Will this help further incentivize operators to continue the micro-GEO surge we saw in 2023? Quilty Space will be watching in 2024 to see if it’s a blip on the screen or a trend with staying power.  

Stay tuned. 

SOURCE: https://www.satellitetoday.com/broadband/2023/11/17/philippines-orders-another-satellite-from-astranis/