Viasat goes 0 for 2 on successful satellites. Here are the impacts

To state it bluntly, 2023 has not been a good year for Viasat. One satellite malfunction is bad enough; two have us wondering where the Viasat voodoo doll is and who’s torturing it.  

Viasat disclosed Aug. 24 that Inmarsat 6-F2, a 5,500-kg satellite that took a whopping eight years to build and launch, has suffered a power system malfunction that could render it useless right as it was supposed to enter service.  

Key Ramifications for Viasat:  

• The two Inmarsat-6 satellites were built mainly as replacements for Inmarsat’s (now Viasat’s) L-band I-4 fleet, which consists of four satellites. The oldest two I-4s launched in 2005 and are now 18 years old – three years past their design life (the youngest, Alphasat, is 10 years old). Viasat needs three L-band GEO satellites to maintain global coverage, which is critical for these satellites as they are the backbone of myriad safety services in maritime, aviation, blue force tracking, and elsewhere.  

• Between the four I-4 satellites and the recently launched Inmarsat 6-F1 satellite, Viasat has sufficient assets to maintain global coverage. Still, if Inmarsat 6-F2 fails, it will put the company in the uncomfortable position of having to order a replacement to protect its continuous global L-band coverage. The Inmarsat-6 satellites also carry Ka-band payloads, but with only 4 Gbps of capacity each, we are treating these as a rounding error.  

• Viasat’s plans to leverage L-band spectrum to explore direct-to-device services could experience a setback. 

Most significant impacts for industry: 

• If Viasat-3 and Inmarsat 6-F2 are both deemed irreparable failures, the resulting insurance claims will surely wipe the market’s capacity for 2023. We wouldn’t be surprised to see insurers exit the space business, not unlike some did after 2019’s expensive Vega launch failure. 

• L-band competitors may see an uptick in business as a result. Iridium and, on a regional basis, Thuraya, also provide L-band connectivity services, which have low data rates but durable signal strength. Since these characteristics make L-band a popular choice for safety services, L-band users may consider their options in the (unlikely) event that the anomaly impacts Viasat’s service. 

While Airbus called the malfunction “an unprecedented event,” Inmarsat reported a partial loss of power on its I4-F1 satellite last April. Like the Inmarsat 6-F2, the F1 was built on an Airbus Eurostar 3000 platform. Once an Airbus mainstay, no Eurostar 3000s have been ordered in the last three years as Airbus has shifted to ESA-sponsored Eurostar Neo and the software-defined OneSat platforms. 

SOURCE: https://www.satellitetoday.com/technology/2023/08/24/inmarsat-6-f2-satellite-suffers-unprecedented-anomaly/