VHR Imagery Coming into Focus with Maxar’s Legion Launch

Very high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery, defined as 50cm or better resolution, has historically been a rare and prized resource. Before the launch of two Maxar Legion satellites on May 2, 2024, there were only 14 commercially operated VHR satellites on orbit. Six of these satellites are operating beyond their design life (by an average of ~8 years!), while another five have less than three years of remaining design life. Meanwhile, demand for VHR imagery has arguably never been higher due to roiling global conflicts and the emergence of new AI/ML tools that can extract even greater value from imagery. And, better data (i.e., better resolution) results in better analysis.

As profiled in our EO Sector Spotlight VHR report published in 3Q 2022, the twin Legion satellites launched last week represent the vanguard of 100+ VHR satellites that could be launched over the next four years. This total includes large constellations like Planet’s Pelican (32 satellites) and Airbus's renewed commitment, unveiling its Pléiades Neo Next program on April 29 with one satellite already in production and subsequent plans to deliver “new satellite assets and capabilities.”

For now, Maxar will remain king of the VHR hill, with four more Legions ready for launch and potentially two more in early construction. Only Airbus (Pléiades Neo 3&4) and ISI (EROS C3) have similar 30cm capability.

Despite the recent Legion launch and the big industry plans for new VHR capacity, near-term VHR supply is more likely to contract than expand. Six of today's VHR satellites are operating beyond their design life and will soon run out of fuel. Airbus is 2 to 3 years out from adding capacity. BlackSky will launch its first 35 cm Gen 3 satellite in late 2024, with an uncertain (cash-dependent) launch rate thereafter. Satrec Initiative launches its 30 cm SpaceEye-T early in 2025 but has limited commercial reach. Beyond that, Pelican will need at least a half dozen satellites in orbit to dent the market. Maybe late-2025?

Importantly, Maxar has 100% commercial access to the Legion fleet. That is, until WorldView 1 & 2 (launched in 2007 and 2009) finally tap out, and Legion capacity is needed for EOCL commitments. The degree to which Maxar can successfully grow the market vs. simply stealing share from the HR market could weigh heavily in sustained investment in large VHR constellations.

SOURCE: https://www.maxar.com/press-releases/first-two-worldview-legion-spacecraft-performing-well-after-launch