ULA’s quest to reset industry precedent
On Oct. 21, United Launch Alliance began integrating its third Vulcan rocket on a mission that, if done this year, positions the company to make good on an ambitious launch cadence in 2025. While no launch date was given, ULA progressed from integration to launch in 14 days for its last mission, suggesting a launch is soon.
ULA has completed six of a planned eight launches in 2024 – three Atlas 5s, two Vulcans, and the final Delta 4 Heavy. The company is planning 20 launches next year, and claims many of the rockets, a combination of Vulcans and Atlas 5s, are already built.
Quilty Space has been quick to highlight that despite aggressive ramp up plans announced by launch companies, precedent shows new rockets struggle to launch more than three times annually in their early years. That said, ULA appears ready to buck that trend.
If ULA launches Vulcan in November, it would match the pace SpaceX achieved with the debut of the Falcon 9, which completed its first three launches in 11 months. If Vulcan launches a fourth time within 16 months, it will outpace Falcon 9 and Rocket Lab’s Electron with the fastest early ramp up of a modern launch vehicle.
Since ULA does not own a megaconstellation (a la SpaceX’s Starlink), there is no expectation its launch rate will pass 100 a year. Still, ULA’s stated goal of averaging around 25 Vulcan launches a year is poised to reintroduce launcher diversity to a market clamoring for it.
Here is Quilty Space’s assessment of the implications:
- The (almost) return of launcher competition. No Western launch operator is on track to launch anywhere close to SpaceX’s rate with the Falcon 9, but the industry wants and will benefit from having a second medium-to-heavy lift vehicle with a steady flight cadence. ULA’s manifest is, in the words of CEO Tory Bruno, “very full” through 2026. While not a near-term fix, ULA’s recent progress, 2025 goals, and backlog of commercial, military and civil government missions suggest it will be ready to maintain an aggressive flight rate.
- Proof the SRB anomaly was minor. Vulcan had a visible malfunction during its second flight when one of its two solid-rocket boosters from Northrop Grumman lost a nozzle. The anomaly didn’t affect the final mission, which still reached its intended target in space. Returning to flight preparations within weeks of that mission offers proof the anomaly was as minor as ULA has indicated. ULA has done something similar before. In 2016, an Atlas 5 Centaur upper stage compensated for an underperformance of the rocket's first stage. Intra-vehicle resiliency has reinforced ULA’s reliability in the past, and is doing the same now.
- A win for Kuiper. Some 53% of Amazon’s Kuiper launch capacity is slated booked on ULA Vulcan rockets. This outsized portion compared to Arianespace (which plans six Ariane 6 launches in 2025, inclusive of Kuiper and other customers) and Blue Origin (who’s New Glenn rocket has yet to launch), means no other company is as important for Kuiper to reach its goal of starting service in 2025. Vulcan’s pace to date bodes well for meeting that target.
SOURCE: https://x.com/ulalaunch/status/1848428959349760147