Space is Hard: Small Launch Chapter

It might not come as a surprise that 70% (*1) of all maiden orbital launch attempts have been a total bust. The real shock is what comes next. Apart from Rocket Lab’s impressive 90% (37 of 41) success rate for Electron, all other small launch vehicles since Electron’s 2017 debut pale in comparison with a dismal success rate of only 33% (10 of 30). Combine that staggering stat with an air launcher bankruptcy (Virgin Orbit) and the fact that nearly half of those small launch companies suffered from multiple failures, and it’s safe to say that we just penned the first chapter of a cautionary tale.

Firefly’s Dec. 22, 2023, launch failure is emblematic of this trend. Par for the course, the company’s maiden launch in 2021 failed. And while it aced the highly acclaimed Victus Nox responsive launch mission in September 2023, two other launch attempts ended in partial failures.

I get it. Space is hard. And as Elon Musk says, “If you’re not failing, you’re not innovating enough.” But the small launch industry's steep and costly learning curve has burned many VC investors, costing them hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s a lot of coin, but the stakes are arguably an order of magnitude higher for the forthcoming crop of heavy-lift launch vehicles, including Ariane 6, New Glenn, and Vulcan. Applying the small launch track record to these rockets would have disastrous ramifications for the entire space industry ecosystem, delaying civil, military, and commercial programs while boosting program costs.

So, as we look ahead to the maiden launches of 2024, let’s all hope for Falcon-esque flight success.

1. Includes the first launch of all western-accessible orbital launch vehicles since 2000.

SOURCE: www.quiltyspace.com