Italy’s Constellation Dilemma

The European Union is treating Italy’s consideration of a €1.5 billion ($1.6B) contract for secure Starlink services as a binary decision between Europe and a foreign provider, the consequences of which have ramifications for the rest of the continent.

It's worth pointing out up front that the “either/or” nature of the debate that erupted Jan. 5 isn’t accurate. The contract, as reported by Bloomberg, is for five years of service. If signed in 2025, it would last until 2030, essentially serving as a bridge to when the EU’s IRIS2 constellation is expected to become operational. So, why did the contract negotiations become such a lightning rod? Quilty Space identifies three reasons.

-         Distrust of Musk. The SpaceX founder has morphed over the past few years from a tech icon into a polarizing political figure. A contract with Starlink is being viewed as an endorsement of Musk’s political views.

-         A threat to EU jobs. Christophe Grudler, an EU Parliamentarian and key supporter of IRIS2 voiced opposition to the potential contract, citing a risk to European jobs, though it appears to be something of a red herring. If Italy were choosing Starlink over IRIS2, this would make sense, but IRIS2 isn’t here yet. Instead, Italy is gaining jobs at the Fucino Space Centre for IRIS2, which will serve as one of three key ground segment locations for the multi-orbit constellation across Europe.

-         A loss of national sovereignty. Communications going over foreign satellite systems can be a touchy subject, and sometimes leads nations to use a two-pronged approach: maintain national assets while also buying commercial satcom from domestic and allied sources. Italy is doing the latter. The country has sovereign GEO comms through the Sicral and Athena-Fidus satellites, and has purchased commercial GEO satcom from Swedish provider Ovzon. Adding Starlink gives low latency, high bandwidth LEO connectivity, a resource that has proven its utility in Ukraine.

The debate over Starlink in Italy bears similarity to the European launcher crisis from 2022-2024, where out of necessity, European satellites launched on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Europe’s Ariane 6 wasn’t flying, Vega C was grounded by failure, and Soyuz was removed from Europe’s rocket roster by Russian aggression. At no point was SpaceX considered a permanent replacement for European launch vehicles. The question, then with the launch and now with LEO satcom, is whether Europe should forgo an allied capability for years or accept that it can benefit from what SpaceX offers until a sovereign alternative exists. The answer, whatever Italy decides, will impact Starlink (and potentially Amazon Kuiper’s) ability to offer commercial satcom to European government customers. 

SOURCE: https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-giorgia-meloni-starlink-secure-telecoms/